Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.