🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still